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D’Backs Exercise Option On Kelly, Decline Option On McGough; Pederson Declines Mutual Option

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The Diamondbacks will be exercising their $7MM club option on Merrill Kelly for the 2025 season, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  The team will also be declining their end of a $4MM mutual option on right-hander Scott McGough, as McGough will head into free agency with a $750K buyout.  He’ll be joined by Joc Pederson, who took a $3MM buyout after declining his end of a $14MM mutual option for the 2025 campaign.

All three decisions were expected, even with Kelly missing over half of the season due to a teres major strain.  The right-hander was limited to 73 2/3 innings over 13 starts, with a 4.03 ERA and some pretty unimpressive Statcast numbers, save for a solid 6.3% walk rate.

Assuming good health for Kelly next year, however, the $6MM decision (there was a $1MM buyout attached) was still an easy one for Arizona to make, given how well he has generally pitched over his six seasons in a Diamondbacks uniform.  Kelly didn’t make his MLB debut until age 30, after the D’Backs signed him to return to North America after a successful four-season run in the KBO League.  Over the course of two separate contracts with Arizona, Kelly has now earned $37.5MM over a seven-year span since returning from South Korea.

The D’Backs were hoping for more reclamation success when they signed McGough to a two-year, $6.25MM deal in the 2022-23 offseason, as McGough had pitched well over four seasons with the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball.  Unfortunately, McGough posted a 4.73 ERA in 70 1/3 innings out of Arizona’s bullpen in 2023, and then a 7.44 ERA in 32 2/3 frames this season.  The right-hander’s home run and walk rates were constant issues, while McGough’s strikeout rate also plummeted from 28.6% in 2023 to just 16.7% this season.

Pederson almost exclusively faced right-handed pitching this season, and was utilized only as a designated hitter.  Albeit within this limited scope, Pederson enjoyed a monster year, hitting .275/.393/.515 with 23 homers over 449 plate appearances.  Among all position-player free agents, only six posted a higher fWAR than Pederson’s 3.0 mark in 2024, and only Juan Soto had a higher wRC+ than Pederson’s 151.

While Pederson resisted being a full-time platoon player or DH earlier in his career, embracing his specialist role has obvious upside, and could lead to another nice payday as he enters his age-33 season.  No shortage of teams could use Pederson’s power, and a return to the D’Backs is certainly a possibility given how well the veteran slugger performed in his first season in Arizona.  Randal Grichuk also declined his end of a mutual option, leaving the Diamondbacks without both pieces of their unofficial lefty-righty platoon.  Depending on the asking prices, the D’Backs could perhaps look to re-sign one of Pederson or Grichuk, and then look another complementary bat to fill the other side of the virtual platoon.

D-Backs To Exercise Option On Eugenio Suarez

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The Diamondbacks are picking up their $15MM option on Eugenio Suárez, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN (on X). The deal would have come with a $2MM buyout, effectively rendering it a $13MM decision.

Just a few months ago, the Diamondbacks wouldn’t have envisioned making this decision. Suárez got out to a terrible start to the season, his first in the desert after an offseason trade with the Mariners. He went into the All-Star Break with a .216/.302/.366 slash while striking out in nearly 29% of his plate appearances. Arizona considered bumping him out of the starting lineup in deference to rookie infielder Blaze Alexander.

A monster second half not only salvaged his starting job but locked in that extra $13MM. Suárez was one of the game’s hottest hitters after the Break. He mashed at a .307/.341/.602 clip with 20 homers in his final 65 games. He cut his strikeout rate by a few percentage points while running a three-month power barrage. By the end of the season, he’d pushed his numbers to a .256/.319/.469 line with 30 homers across 640 plate appearances. After accounting for the difference in his home park, that’s not far off the cumulative .234/.327/.423 showing he posted over his final two seasons in Seattle.

Suárez essentially played at the level Arizona expected, albeit in extremely streaky fashion. It would’ve been surprising for the Diamondbacks to cut him loose on the heels of that monster finish. He’s a potential offseason trade candidate, though. Bringing Suárez back blocks the clearest path to playing time for top prospect Jordan Lawlar. The Snakes have Geraldo Perdomo and Ketel Marte locked into the middle infield.

The 22-year-old Lawlar lost most of this year to injury. He only appeared in 23 minor league games and didn’t see any MLB action despite making his big league debut late in the ’23 season. Lawlar still has minor league options remaining, so the Snakes could keep him in Triple-A for another year. If they feel he’ll be ready for an extended audition early next season, shopping Suárez could allow them to reallocate salary while recouping value they wouldn’t have received if they’d bought out the option.

Option decisions on Jordan Montgomery and Suárez push Arizona’s projected payroll to roughly $137MM, as calculated by RosterResource. An easy option call to retain Merrill Kelly will add another $6MM. Arizona opened this past season with a franchise-record payroll in the $163MM range. If they’re willing to replicate that, they’ll have some leeway to replace free agents Christian Walker and Joc Pederson. Trades of Montgomery and/or Suárez could clear a good bit more money if ownership doesn’t want to match this year’s spending. They won’t find a taker for the entirety of Montgomery’s $22.5MM deal, but teams like the Yankees, Blue Jays or Astros could be willing to give up talent while taking Suárez’s salary off the books.

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network.

Jordan Montgomery Exercises Player Option With D-Backs

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Jordan Montgomery exercised his $22.5MM player option with the Diamondbacks, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). There was never much doubt on this decision, though Montgomery stands as one of the top trade candidates of the winter.

Montgomery’s first season in the desert was a nightmare. The veteran southpaw signed late on a $25MM pillow contract after his market failed to materialize. He changed his representation shortly into the season and has publicly expressed dissatisfaction with how former agent Scott Boras handled negotiations. Montgomery surely hoped to retest the market after one season, but he didn’t pitch well enough to give himself that opportunity.

Opponents teed off for a 6.23 ERA in 117 innings. Arizona pushed him out of the rotation after 21 starts, the first time in his career that he lost a starting job. The only silver lining was that Montgomery made enough starts to vest the option that he eventually pushed to a $22.5MM value.

Owner Ken Kendrick pulled no punches after the season. “If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you’re talking to the guy that should be blamed,” the owner said after the team narrowly missed the playoffs. “Because I brought it to (the front office’s) attention. I pushed for it. They agreed to it. It wasn’t in our game plan. … And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did. It’s our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint. And I’m the perpetrator of that.”

There was some chatter that Kendrick went public hoping to alienate Montgomery so the pitcher would pass on the option. If that was the intent, it never stood much chance. Montgomery would have been leaving millions on the table if he returned to free agency. He’d likely have been looking at a one-year contract in the $8-12MM range in that case. Even if Montgomery wants a fresh start, that’s too much to bypass. Arizona will probably look for ways to offload a portion of the deal in an offseason trade, though they wouldn’t be able to shed the entire salary without taking back an undesirable contract in their own right.

Randal Grichuk Declines Mutual Option With Diamondbacks

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Outfielder Randal Grichuk has turned down his end of a $6MM mutual option with the Diamondbacks, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. As Ethan Hullihen noted on X, Grichuk will receive a $1.75MM buyout. It’s unclear if the Diamondbacks exercised their half of the option, although it’s now a moot point.

It’s hardly a surprise that Grichuk is electing free agency after the strong 2024 season he put together. The veteran shone as a right-handed platoon bat, producing his best offensive numbers since his rookie campaign in 2015. Over 279 plate appearances, he hit 20 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs, good for an .875 OPS and a 139 wRC+. And while he excelled against left-handed pitchers, whom he faced in two-thirds of his plate appearances, it helped that he held his own without the platoon advantage. He put up a .913 OPS and 151 wRC+ against lefties and an .801 OPS and 116 wRC+ against righties. It was the first time since 2018 that he produced above-average numbers against same-handed pitchers.

Grichuk did all that on just a $1.5MM salary in 2024. He was also guaranteed a $500K buyout at the end of the season if either he or the Diamondbacks declined his mutual option. He was able to increase that buyout to $1.75MM by reaching 250 plate appearances in 2024, meaning he will need up earning $3.25MM on this deal. Needless to say, the D-backs got a tremendous bargain, and it will most likely take a good deal more money, and perhaps even multiple years, for a team to secure his services this winter. Grichuk could have his sights on something close to the two-year, $13MM deal Hunter Renfroe signed with the Royals last offseason.

To be clear, Grichuk is still a part-time player in his mid-thirties without a particularly strong track record of success. He’s not going to be one of the top free agent bats on the market. Still, there will always be a robust market for productive role players, and there are good reasons to believe Grichuk can maintain his newfound success. For one thing, he drastically improved his plate discipline in 2024, putting up the lowest strikeout rate and highest walk rate of his career. His 47.6% hard-hit rate was also a career-high. Those numbers should be able to convince plenty of teams that Grichuk can be a valuable contributor in 2025.

The Diamondbacks had one of the most productive lineups in the majors this past year, but they’ll surely be in the market for bats again this winter as they look to get back to the playoffs in 2025. In addition to Grichuk, they are going to lose first baseman Christian Walker to free agency. They could also be without Joc Pederson, who has a $14MM mutual option for 2025, and Eugenio Suárez, if they choose not to exercise his $15MM team option.

Daniel Hudson Announces Retirement

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Following the Dodgers’ decisive victory over the Yankees in Game 5 of the World Series last night, veteran reliever Daniel Hudson announced to reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) that he will retire from playing as a champion. The veteran of 15 big league seasons has played for the Dodgers, Padres, Nationals, Blue Jays, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and White Sox throughout his lengthy career.

Hudson, 37, was selected by Chicago in the fifth round of the 2008 draft. Then a starting pitcher, the right-hander was a fast riser to the majors who made his big league debut just one year after being drafted, in 2009. He made just nine appearances for the team that drafted him across two seasons before being shipped to the Diamondbacks in a deal for Edwin Jackson. Hudson slotted into the Diamondbacks rotation down the stretch and put on a dazzling performance for fans in Arizona, with a 1.69 ERA and 3.22 FIP in 11 starts spread across 79 2/3 innings of work.

That dominant late-season performance suggested the Snakes had landed a quality starter ready for a full season’s workload in the majors. The right-hander’s first full season with the Dbacks seemed to support that, as he posted a solid 3.49 ERA while logging 222 innings across 33 starts for the club in 2011. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse from there. Hudson’s 2012 season saw him post disastrous results through nine starts before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery that July. He’d miss the entire 2013 season while rehabbing and made it back to a big league mound only at the tail end of the 2014 season.

Hudson’s elbow troubles marked the end of his career as a starter, but his time in the majors was just getting started as he began to fashion himself into a reliever. His first season out of the bullpen in Arizona was relatively pedestrian, as the then-28-year-old pitched to a 3.86 ERA in 67 2/3 innings of work while striking out 24.5% of opponents. It was more of the same for the right-hander over the next several years, as he bounced from team to team as a solid but unspectacular middle reliever. From 2015 to 2018, Hudson suited up for Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles with rather pedestrian results. His 96 ERA+ was just below league average during that time, and he struck out 23.3% of opponents.

Things changed for Hudson in 2019, however. After latching on with the Blue Jays on a one-year deal, Hudson looked quite good for the rebuilding club in the first half of the season as he posted a solid 3.00 ERA in 48 innings of work. That solid performance was enough to draw interest from the Nationals, who at the time were in a tight race with the Phillies, Brewers, and Cubs for two NL Wild Card spots. The bullpen had been a sore spot for D.C. throughout the year, but Hudson helped to change that with a dominant late-season run that saw him post an eye-popping 1.44 ERA in 24 late-season innings for the Nationals.

That incredible work led Hudson to join closer Sean Doolittle as one of only a handful of trusted pitchers on Dave Martinez’s staff during the postseason. Hudson managed scoreless appearances in seven of his nine outings for the Nationals during that playoff run, highlighted by his save in the NL Wild Card Game against the Brewers to and his scoreless frame of work to close out Game 7 of the World Series and earn the Nats their first World Series championship in club history. After securing his first ring, Hudson remained with the Nationals for two more seasons. After a difficult 2020 campaign, he pitched well enough during the 2021 season to get traded to the Padres down the stretch, though San Diego ultimately missed the postseason.

The final act of Hudson’s career began in 2022 when he signed on to return to the Dodgers. During his second stint in Los Angeles, Hudson was nothing short of electric when on the mound, with a 2.69 ERA a 26.9% strikeout rate when healthy enough to take the mound. Staying healthy proved to be a challenge, however, as ACL and MCL injuries limited the veteran to just 27 1/3 innings of work over the 2022 and ’23 campaigns. He remained with the Dodgers on a minor league deal last winter, however, and was part of the club’s Opening Day bullpen. Now that he was finally healthy, the 37-year-old impressed with a 3.00 ERA in 63 innings of work while collecting ten saves with the Dodgers throughout the year. While a difficult outing in Game 4 of the World Series skewed his overall postseason numbers, Hudson was a generally effective relief arm for the club throughout their playoff run this year, throwing scoreless frames in five of his seven outings en route to his second career championship.

Altogether, Hudson posted a 3.74 ERA (111 ERA+) and a nearly-matching 3.76 FIP over 855 1/3 career innings during the regular season (to go with 21 postseason innings). He won 65 games and saved 43 while striking out 817 batters and appearing in 537 total contests. Those of us at MLB Trade Rumors salute Hudson on a fine career and wish him all the best in whatever comes next for the two-time World Series champion.

Poll: The Diamondbacks’ Club Option On Eugenio Suárez

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Once the World Series wraps up, teams and players will have five days to decide on options, opt-outs and qualifying offers. One of the more interesting cases is third baseman Eugenio Suárez. The Diamondbacks can retain him via a $15MM club option or go for a $2MM buyout instead.

There was a time a few months ago when it seemed a lock that the Snakes would take the buyout and let Geno go. But after a torrid second half, it would now be surprising if they didn’t pick up the option.

Suárez has been a very streaky player in his career overall and his lopsided 2024 season was a microcosm of that. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .271/.364/.521 for a wRC+ of 127 with the Reds. That 2019 season saw him hit 49 long balls, but it’s now established that there was a juiced ball that season, making for some wonky home run totals around the league. His strikeout rate ticked up to 28.5% that year after being in the 23-25% range in prior seasons.

The strikeouts continued into subsequent seasons, leading to a rough patch for him. He struck out 29.6% of the time over 2020 and 2021, producing a .199/.293/.440 batting line and 89 wRC+. His was then flipped to the Mariners in a move that was largely viewed as the M’s taking on his salary as a way of acquiring Jesse Winker.

But Suárez went on to have a huge bounceback season in Seattle, hitting 31 home runs in 2022 and slashing .236/.332/.459 for a 132 wRC+. His home run total dipped to 22 last year but his .232/.323/.391 line still led to a 104 wRC+, a bit above average. He was striking out over 30% of the time but still proving to be useful overall. He also improved his glovework while with the Mariners. Defensive Runs Saved still viewed him as a subpar defender at third but his marks in 2022-23 were better than during time in Cincinnati. Outs Above Average had long viewed him around average but gave him a huge +12 grade in 2023.

It was then that the Diamondbacks acquired him, sending pitcher Carlos Vargas and catcher Seby Zavala to the Mariners in November of last year. At that time, Suárez had one guaranteed year left on his contract. He was going to make $11MM in 2024 with the aforementioned club option was there as well.

His ’24 campaign eventually mirrored the up-and-down nature of his career overall. He was brutal in the first half, to the point that there were rumors by early June of the club hoping for a trade. A few days later, manager Torey Lovullo admitted that Suárez was going to lose some playing time to infielder Blaze Alexander. At the end of June, Suárez was sitting on a line of .196/.279/.312, a 29.2% strikeout rate and 66 wRC+.

But the calendar flipped to July and Suárez caught fire, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored a month ago. In the final three months of the season, Suárez struck out at a 25.8% clip, still above league average but an improvement for him. He hit 24 home runs and slashed .312/.357/.617 for a 162 wRC+. He was one of the ten best qualified hitters in the majors in that stretch.

Though he’s done it with plenty of strikeouts and some rough patches, Suárez has managed to be a solid contributor for three straight seasons now. FanGraphs has credited him with between 3.5 and 4.3 wins above replacement in each of the three most recent campaigns. Despite his awful first half in 2024, he still got his fWAR total to 3.8 by season’s end.

A net $13MM decision on a player who can produce like that should be an easy call, but there’s at least an argument for the Diamondbacks going in a different direction. Given the up-and-down nature of Suárez’s career and most recent season, perhaps the Snakes would like to jump off the rollercoaster while they have a chance. Suárez is now 33 years old, turning 34 next July, and there will have to come a time where he can’t keep walking this tightrope.

The Diamondbacks could prefer to turn third base over to someone else within the organization. That someone was Alexander earlier this year but he slumped as Suárez surged and ended up with a .247/.321/.343 line and 88 wRC+ in 2024. He also struck out at a Suárezian 30.7% rate in 51 Triple-A games while producing league-average offense at that level, making him a risky bet as an everyday MLB third baseman next year.

There’s also Jordan Lawlar, who is considered one of the top prospects in the league. He has mostly played shortstop in his career but has dabbled at third base lately, perhaps due to the Snakes having Geraldo Perdomo at short. Lawlar has climbed the minor league ladder and accumulated a small amount of major league playing time, so perhaps they could let him take over the hot corner.

However, that was also the case a year ago. Lawlar reached the majors late in 2023 but struggled badly. He hit .129/.206/.129 in his first 14 big league games. The Diamondbacks clearly weren’t ready to hand him a major league job, which is why they went out and traded for Suárez.

In 2024, Lawlar could have perhaps earned the gig while Suárez was struggling but injuries got in the way. Lawlar ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb during spring training, requiring surgery. That kept him out of action until May, but then hamstring injuries held him back in the summer. He only played 23 minor league games this year around those injury issues and didn’t play in the majors.

That leaves the Snakes in the same position with Lawlar as they were one year ago. He is surely still viewed as a key part of their future but hasn’t yet proven himself in the majors. One year ago, the club decided they needed a more established option at third and went with Suárez.

Perhaps they will decide to take the same approach in 2025, having Suárez at third as a placeholder for Lawlar’s eventual arrival. They could look to non-Suárez options for that job if they want, but the free agent market doesn’t have an answer for them. Of the available third basemen, Alex Bregman is the clear top option. After Bregman, the top options for the hot corner are more bench/utility types like Paul DeJong, Enrique Hernández and Gio Urshela. On the trade market, the Cardinals might make Nolan Arenado available in their reset year but he has a full no-trade clause, complicating that situation.

The Diamondbacks won’t be the most logical landing spot for Bregman if they view Lawlar as their future third baseman. Perhaps they want Lawlar to supplant Perdomo at short, with the latter moving to second base and bumping Ketel Marte into a fairly regular designated hitter. Even so, they don’t usually win the bidding on top free agents so it’s unlikely Bregman would be part of such a plan.

That weak market for third baseman could give Suárez extra appeal as a trade candidate, so perhaps the Snakes will consider making him available, either before or after picking up the option. Clubs with borderline options often look into making deals as the decision moment arrives. Last November, the Brewers traded Mark Canha to the Tigers a few days before his option decision was due, with Detroit picking up the option a few days after acquiring him.

Surely there will be some club that misses out on Bregman and looks for backup plans, which could lead to them fielding some calls on Suárez. But the tepid market cuts both ways, as the Diamondbacks would then be limited in what they could do to replace Suárez, meaning they would be putting a lot of faith in Lawlar or Alexander stepping up and taking the job.

There are arguments for each path. Suárez might be the most straightforward answer at third base for the next year, giving appeal to simply sticking with him. But on the other hand, cutting ties from a risky and streaky player who is entering his mid-30s also has appeal, as they were trying to trade him or bench him as of a few months ago and that money could be redirected to another part of the roster. Perhaps the trade market could help the club find an upgrade while also saving a few bucks for other moves.

What do you think the Snakes should do? Have your say in the poll below!

Astros To Hire Tony Perezchica As Third Base Coach

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The Astros are hiring Tony Perezchica to serve as third base coach, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Perezchica has held the same role with the Diamondbacks for the last eight years. Piecoro notes that Perezchica had served as an infield instructor with Arizona and is expected to do the same in Houston while taking on an expanded role working with minor league infielders.

Perezchica, 58, briefly appeared in the majors between 1988-92. He has spent nearly three decades in the coaching ranks. The majority of that experience has come with the Diamondbacks. Perezchica took a managerial role with one of Arizona’s rookie ball affiliates back in 2003. He joined Torey Lovullo’s first coaching staff in the desert over the 2016-17 offseason.

The Astros decided not to renew the contract of previous third base coach Gary Pettis. Chandler Rome of the Athletic writes that the Astros don’t plan to go outside the organization for additional hires, though the staff hasn’t been finalized and it’s possible other teams express interest in hiring coaches away from Houston. If no one departs for a better opportunity, it seems the Astros will only make the one coaching change.

There’s more turnover in Phoenix. Arizona fired three pitching coaches (including former Astros staffer Brent Strom) a few weeks ago. They now have four vacancies to address.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

Poll: Christian Walker And The Qualifying Offer

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Ever since the club dealt superstar slugger Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season, the Diamondbacks have been relying on Christian Walker to pick up the slack at first base. In his first three seasons as a regular, Walker was somewhat uneven as he posted roughly league average numbers with the bat overall (103 wRC+) thanks to decent but unimpressive strikeout (24.1%) and walk (9.6%) rates that combined with only average power. While Walker posted above average defensive marks during that time, that wasn’t enough to make him an impact player at a bat-first position like first base, leaving him to generate just 4.1 fWAR over his first three seasons after taking over for Goldschmidt.

Since then, however, the slugger has proved to be a late bloomer and taken off in a big way. A breakout 2022 season saw Walker nearly match that aforementioned three-year total in a single season with a 4.0 fWAR campaign where he slashed an excellent .242/.327/.477 (122 wRC+) while appearing in 160 of the club’s 162 games and clobbering 36 home runs. That was good for the sixth-highest home run total in the league that year, and Walker paired it with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. Only Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo joined Walker in striking out less than 20% of the time, walking more than 10% of the time, and clubbing at least 30 homers that year. 2022 also saw Walker flourish defensively, as his +14 Outs Above Average and +17 Defensive Runs Saved easily earned him his first career Gold Glove award as he ran circles around the competition, with Matt Olson’s +4 OAA and +6 DRS standing as the next-best defensive resume that year.

Some skepticism is always necessary when a player on the wrong side of 30 enjoys a breakout season, but Walker has subsequently proven his fantastic age-31 campaign to have been largely sustainable. It’s been more of the same in each of the last two years, as Walker has posted identical 119 wRC+ figures in both 2023 and ’24 while slugging a combined 59 homers and generating 6.9 fWAR. Over the past three years, only Goldschmidt, Olson, Bryce Harper, and Freddie Freeman have generated more fWAR than Walker at first base, cementing him as one of the league’s premier first basemen.

Each of those four sluggers ahead of him have played on nine-figure deals in recent years, but even as Walker heads into free agency for the first time in his career it would be a shock if he were to join them in landing a contract anywhere close to that price point. The biggest reason for that is his age; Walker will turn 34 the day after Opening Day 2025, making him two years older than Freeman was when he signed on with the Dodgers and a year older than Goldschmidt was when he signed an extension in St. Louis. While it’s certainly not unheard of for hitters to remain effective into their mid-to-late thirties, it would be an incredibly risky bet for a club to offer Walker even a four- or five-year deal given the typical aging curve of MLB players.

Walker’s age isn’t the only factor at play here, either. While his platform season with Arizona in 2024 was largely a successful one, an oblique strain cost the veteran just over a month late in the year. Walker’s availability has been a major asset in recent years; the veteran appeared in more than 90% of the Dbacks’ games from 2019 to 2023, including just seven games missed between the 2022 and ’23 seasons combined. Given that, it’s surely concerning to prospective suitors that Walker now has a significant oblique injury in his recent history—particularly given the fact that he also suffered from oblique problems in 2021 that resulted in multiple trips to the IL.

As the veteran enters free agency not only on the cusp of his mid-thirties but on the heels of a fresh reminder of his injury history, it’s fair to wonder what sort of contract will be available to him on the open market. Other veteran first basemen like Rizzo and Jose Abreu have managed to get deals in the two-to-three year range for $15-20MM annually, and it’s not hard to imagine Walker getting a similar deal. If Walker figures to land a deal in a similar range, that would likely place him squarely on the bubble for a Qualifying Offer, which this offseason will be a one-year deal worth $21.05MM.

That’s likely a slight overpay in terms of AAV for Walker’s services, but it could nonetheless be an attractive gamble for the Diamondbacks to take given Walker’s importance to the club’s lineup in recent years and the short-term nature of the commitment. RosterResource at Fangraphs projects Arizona for just under $97MM in commitments for the 2025 season, though that figure shoots up to around $138MM after factoring in options for Jordan Montgomery, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly.

That would still leave the club with around $35MM of budget space if they were to match their 2024 spending totals, although a $21.05MM commitment to Walker would eat up the majority of that space, leaving them without much room to replace other outgoing free agents such as Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. Of course, that assumes that Walker would accept the offer if it’s extended to him. If he were to decline it and sign elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would receive a compensatory pick following either the first or second round of the 2025 draft in exchange for losing Walker, allowing them to ensure they won’t lose a key cog in their lineup for nothing.

Should the Diamondbacks extend Walker the Qualifying Offer this winter and risk paying him more in 2025 than he would earn otherwise, or should they allow him to enter free agency unencumbered and risk losing him for nothing? Have your say in the poll below.

Eight Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com or MLB.com logs.

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