The Rockies and third baseman Nolan Arenado have agreed to a two-year deal that comes with a guaranteed $29.5MM, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that Arenado will earn $11.75MM in 2017 and $17.75MM in 2018. Arenado will be arbitration-eligible one final time after this two-year deal is up, and he can become a free agent after the 2019 season.
That two-year rate constitutes a slight bump over the $28.65MM deal worked out last winter between Josh Donaldson and the Blue Jays. While Arenado doesn’t have the MVP award that Donaldson brought into his second year of arb eligibility as a Super Two, the former was working from a higher first-year arb salary ($5MM).
MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz had projected that Arenado would earn $13.1MM this year. Instead, he’ll take slightly less, and will perhaps give up some upside for the following season, in exchange for the certainty of the two-year arrangement.
Arenado is a highly valuable all-around player, delivering value with his glove and his bat. It’s the latter skill that pays through the arb process, though, and Arenado showed plenty in 2016. With Coors Field helping to boost his counting stats somewhat, Arenado turned in a second-straight season in which he led the National League in home runs and RBI. Though it isn’t a particularly notable factor in arbitration, it’s worth noting too that Arenado’s OBP also rose (from .323 to .362) as he significantly improved in the plate discipline department by doubling his walk tally from 34 to 68.
Interesting. I wonder what MLBTR would project his 2019 arbitration salary at assuming he doesn’t sign an extension of course and keeps putting up the numbers he’s put up the last couple years. $23 million?
Wow. I wonder why arenado wants to be with the rockies. He always seems frustrated with his team and could get more money with a contending team.
Uh, maybe because he doesn’t have close to enough device time to become a free agent and choose where he wants to play..
*service
He doesn’t have much choice he’s a ways from free agency. Has he made statements to this effect? Tulo was the only one I was aware of.
The Rockies could easily be a contender this season, all they need is some better pitching, they have 2 of the best outfielders in the game. 2 of the best hitting infielders in the game including the best 3rd baseman in the game, with another great outfielder on the bench, AND two of the best hitting rookies in the game.
History of the Rockies. If they can get league average pitching they can almost always have a shot. Ubaldo Jimenez and Jeff Francis got it done for them….but typically they just cough it up.
Starting pitching on this team is very good, or could be. Bullpen and hitting on the road is what is holding them back. That an injuries.
The staff has potential..would like to see them flip for a front end guy. Go look at Blackmons road stats though…better than Coors…strange.
The Rockies could easily be a contender this season, all they need is some better pitching,
– yes they could, but getting better pitching is easier said than done, especially in colorado
they have 2 of the best outfielders in the game
– Who are these two outfielders?
.2 of the best hitting infielders in the game
-Who are these infielders?
including the best 3rd baseman in the game
-No. Bryant, Donaldson, Seager, Machado,and Beltre were all better last year.
, with another great outfielder on the bench, AND two of the best hitting rookies in the game
-Again who and who?
Other than all of those things that are incorrect, good point!
The Rox some great position players, you’re purposely not giving them any kind of credit to create a stir.
Um, go look at stats that are adjusted for park, like wRC+, they are none of the things that he said.
ofs – 9 and 32
ifs – DJL 6th in 2nd base and Arenado is 7th for 3b. I guess Story is 5th for ss, but he didn’t play enough to qualify.
Actually Arenado was better than all 5 of those guys, compare stats bud.
Perhaps you should compare stats? They were all better by wRC+ and fWAR, bud
3b sorted by wRC+ fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&#…
3b sorted by war fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&#…
He’s not even the best by wOBA, which doesn’t factor in that he plays half his games in coors fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&#…
I think you took the comments without reading any hyperbole into them. The Rockies do have a solid offense, but improving the pitching is for sure easier said than done.
Since your ignorance is showing through with such an asinine statement, let’s play along:
1. Blackmon and Gonzalez
2. Arenado and Lemahiue
So there, that answers your questions. You’re welcome
Comparing WAR, he’s basically right about his fourth point, except for Beltra who was .1 WAR below Arenado.
Basically, yeah. Salty a.f.
Lemahieu has been above average offensively once and Gonzalez isn’t one of the best hitting outfielders anymore. He’s maybe in the low 20’s
Ill give 2 seasons on LaMehieu. Check out that obp in 16.
Cargo is below average and that lemahiue is one of the best hitting infielders in baseball, then i’d like some of what you are smoking.
wrc+ is set so that 100 is league average. DJ has been above 100 one time, 2016. In 2015, his second best year, he was at 89. I’m going to assume this is what he meant when he said that DJ has been above average once.
Chester- Is the +wrc based on position or the entire qualified player pool? Where does 89 place him among 2B? Is he also taking a beating because of Coors park effect? I’d find that unfair actually. Because a players true value would need to be to their team, and the stats are coming in 81 mlb games in Denver.
Most RBI. Again.
Gold Glove. Again.
Arenado does the most important things that a 3B can do, and does it like a bawss.
Highly skeptical of these stats being cited here buddy budderson- fWAR looks very questionable.
I don’t want to be a baseball fan in a world where Arenado isn’t considered top 3 defensively at his position. Even outside the top 1 is a stretch. Guy is slick. The fWAR rankings revolve around lies.
Using wRC+ helps even the field for comparing stats more fairly. I like that. But it doesn’t consider that all of those other players cited had more help in their respective lineups.
We can see how many hittable pitches guys are seeing these days can’t we? How do these modern stats ignore this? I can’t imagine Arenado is seeing better pitches than Donaldson, Machado or Bryant with their peachy lineup spots. Beltre and Seager provide similar bat with similar lineup protection. Not quite as golden with the gloves though.
This is no landslide, but overall package, Arenado is the best 3B in the world. The Glove is Gold. The bat is Silver. Complete package. Your stats are missing some key ingredients.
Beltre is a HOF in my mind, and better career so far. The other 4 are only a small step behind. I still see Longoria with potential to return ot the converation. I know my crystal ball is a little messed up, so feel free to disagree and poke holes. I see Nolan Arenado as this generation’s Beltre. On his way to the Hall at this rate.
No condescending tone intended from here, just wanting to voice my disagreement about Arenado.
Red_Line_9:
wRC+ factors in park effects, year to year fluctuations, and compares to the average qualified player pool. That’s how I read the definition at least. Really great way to compare how a particular player performed among leagues/eras/etc.
Unfair would be using Denver stats without factoring the excessive amount of runs scored in Coors. The recovery time for a Rockies player does make it a bit unfair, but it’s quite impossible to quantify, so this is a decent attempt in my mind.
89 ranking in 2015 was near the bottom of qualified 2B. 128 in 2016 was near the top. Not ridiculous to say he’s around 10th rated 2B if you factor in both years. Which could be considered a top 2B. Depends how you define top player. Top third isn’t outrageous to suggest?!
I could also argue that 9th and 32nd ranked OF in a league that uses 90 OF is considered top OF. Only 54 qualify! To qualify near league average is almost enough. Not a lot of players qualify.
My definition of top player is obviously a much lower bar, but I could make a case, no doubt about it. Not an all-star or elite, but a top player. Better than a bottom player. Slightly above average and able to avoid injury.
Thanks for the breakdown. I appreciate it! So, ok…LaMehieu is a #10 2B…no matter where he would play. Thats all the more valuable because of where he does play and the position he plays. They are getting offense at a position of general scarcity…and can play bats also at more typical offensive positions.
Is there a way to show how the Rockies would perform as a team with various league pitching staffs or their stat equvilants? What their win projection is at certain pitching thresholds?
Wait for someone to post a list of 20 second basemen that they consider better than LeMahieu.
But in my mind, looking at the last 2 years of qualifying second basemen, and giving extra value to someone that can stay on the field- LeMahieu is a #10 2B. Providing basically league average bat, but from 2B.
Sort by min 350 AB gets us a list of top 30 second basemen, according to playing time. For 2016. Sixth in WAR based on whatever ESPN is using.
Altuve, Cano, Dozier, Kinsler and Pedroia is a pretty good top 5.
Murphy, Kipnis, Zobrist should all be above LeMahieu in the future.
Travis, Odor too.
Walker, Forsythe, Hernandez start to be tough to justify for me.
My brain wants me to put Panik, Wong, Castro, Phillips up there too.
But it’s impossible to justify if you look at last year stats at all.
For projecting, it might be more safe to call LeMahieu a #12 second baseman? But it’s petty enough to call it #10 and not sweat it. Few of the guys mentioned above won’t play 2b? Their replacements may do better than LeMahieu. Call it a push!
espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
1.368 for Coors! Still almost 37% better to hit there than league average.
I think this can fluctuate enough depending on players in certain years, but for fun, I’m gonna go with it.
860 Runs allowed. Around 630 adjusted? Mets, Giants, Royals slightly edge them doing some quick math. Solid pitching staff for the Rockies standards. Surprising to me.
845 Runs scored. Around 620 adjusted? Looks like KC, Atl, Arz are the only teams that hit as poorly as the Rockies at a quick glance. .
A staff like KC would be in reach if the Rockies arms improve again? Still gotta hit better or the ceiling will be .500 record. Same performance overall will lead to Arz, Atl territory again.
The Rockies would have to score over 100 extra runs to be close to the Giants or Mets. Still not quite enough.
Improvement of 150 runs in some way would be the Rockies path to the playoffs. Full season of Story and Dahl. Desmond helps the depth. Someone gonna get a hurt. May as well sign a part time 1B/OF type too. Gonna need all the depth they can get if they wanna beef up to playoff caliber.
This is my justification for signing a 1B, moving Desmond to a more desirable position for his offensive skill and dealing for a frontline starter…righty in the pen.
You’re calculation is why the Rockies can’t sit on every prospect and hope to win…they have to boost. Not many teams can….KC is an example.
Colorado has made the post season before though….can be done…need health…and MUST restrict runs.
Rockies will be no better until they get starting pitching. Desmond and dunn doesent do anything to make them a contender.
You’re stuck in 2013. Rockies starters had the 8th best ERA- in baseball last year. They’re loaded with very good young arms.
Bullpen is a MUCH bigger need.
So mike dunn who is a fly ball pitcher will help them? After gray and anderson no one in that rotation scares anyone
Who does Gray and Anderson scare?? Absolutely NO ONE on that entire pitching staff poses much of a threat to ANY given lineup. Sad but true. And that sucks, because they have a really impressive, championship caliber offensive lineup.
Need a righty in the pen. Ramos would be solid..he buries the ball.
Rox got Manny Machado? When did this happen?? What you’re describing has been the same predicament the Rockies have faced for the past two decades. Need better pitching. But apparently management doesn’t think pitching is a good investment. The Rox have had a few solid lineups over the years, but never really made an attempt to acquire the pitching to back it up.
Their system is much more highly regarded than it has been in the past.
Time will tell. I’d really hate to see this lineup go to waste like previous years.
If you don’t understand the business of baseball, don’t bother posting until the season starts. He’s under the control of the Rockies one way or the other until after the 2019 season and they’ve signed him to give both player and team cost certainty for each of the next two seasons.
It’s just two of his arbitration years he still has one after that. This works for them both. Now the Rockies can lock his salary in for next year and Nolan doesn’t have to worry about going through it next year as it was bound to rise if he performs as expected
Pretty sure this dude has no clue how baseball free agency works.
Also Halos fan why are they wasting Trout’s prime?
He gets very rave reviews at 3B
Trying too hard.
You do not get rave reviews for stretching the usage of “rave reviews.”