10:46pm: Arizona’s interest in Cueto was and perhaps still is rather intense, according to reports. The organization sent a delegation including GM Dave Stewart, chief baseball officer Tony La Russa, and president Derrick Hall to the Dominican Republic to meet with the righty, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. And the D’backs still have interest after the initial offer was rebuffed, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), who adds that the club “realize[s]” that Cueto can command more than a $20MM AAV over six years after Jordan Zimmermann got $22MM annually for five.
Of course, the Diamondbacks aren’t alone in pursuing the veteran. Among the other teams to reach out to his representatives are the Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, and Cubs, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. That group of large-market contenders has always figured to factor at the top of the free agent pitching pool.
11:52am: Johnny Cueto reportedly rejected a six-year, $120MM contract offer from the D-Backs recently, and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick now reports that teams in the market for Cueto believe he’s seeking $140-160MM in total — a contract that would vault him into Jon Lester territory (Twitter link). According to Crasnick, the Diamondbacks initially planned to offer Cueto about $110MM but upped their offer to $120MM late in talks (Twitter link). The increase, however, wasn’t enough to get the job done.
It would seem, then, that Cueto’s camp is seeking a contract that doesn’t offer any sort of reduced rate due to the minor elbow issues that plagued Cueto this summer or due to his late-season struggles. Cueto was masterful in his first four outings with the Royals, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in 30 innings, including a complete-game shutout of the Tigers. However, he limped to a 6.49 ERA over his final nine starts (51 1/3 innings). There were a few quality starts mixed in toward the end, but many speculated as to whether Cueto was fully healthy. Cueto and Salvador Perez reportedly worked to adjust where Perez would set the target for Cueto’s pitches, but he still had mixed results from that point forth.
Cueto’s postseason was a true mixed bag — one so-so start, one meltdown and a pair of dominant gems in pivotal games. His final outing — a one-run complete game over the Mets in Game 2 of the World Series — was a nice final impression to make as he headed into free agency. Nevertheless, Cueto’s overall body of work following his mild elbow flare-up and trade to the Royals saw him yield 58 earned runs in 106 1/3 innings (4.91 ERA) with a 75-to-27 K/BB ratio and 118 hits (13 homers) allowed.
None of that is to say that Cueto can’t or shouldn’t secure a hefty payday, of course. Despite those issues, the perception of Cueto has remained that he’s one of the three or four best starters on the market (depending on one’s feelings about Jordan Zimmremann), and we at MLBTR still projected him to clear $100MM with relative ease (though the $120MM he rejected already surpassed our most recent $115MM figure). Prior to those issues, a Lester-esque contract was a perfectly reasonable expectation for Cueto, and the possibility that he exceeded that figure was certainly present. Cueto, after all, logged a 2.48 ERA in 677 1/3 innings from 2011-14 despite pitching his home games in one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks, and he carried a similarly elite 2.62 ERA and a 120-to-29 K/BB ratio through 130 2/3 innings with the Reds this season.
Cueto is a clear front-line starter when healthy and at his best, and he’s entering the open market heading into his age-30 season, having not yet even celebrated his 30th birthday as of this writing. That he’s already received a $120MM offer suggests that the demand for his services is strong, which certainly plays into his camp’s favor as the Winter Meetings approach.
150-160 is only realistic if he gets a 7th year, which I doubt, considering his injury concerns regarding his elbow. I don’t think 140 is going to happen either, but he should be able to get 130 over 6 years, maybe 135.
130 over 6 years is 21.67 AAV, less annual value than Zimmerman signed. Cueto will certainly surpass that value per year.
Cueto’s wind-up is painful to watch. As good as he’s been, I wouldn’t want to be the GM who signs Cueto through his age 35 season.
You make a pretty good point on his arm with the windup, but maybe not. Am sure have heard many times it is almost exactly like Tuis Tiant and it really is for the people who remember El Tiante. Take a look at the numbers for both. Tiant threw 1200 innings before he had some shoulder issues spanning parts of 2 seasons. Back then, as people know they tried to pitch threw injuries.. Anyway, he didn’t fully recover for 2 full seasons and then threw another 2200 innings with that same, exact deliver Cueto has.
It’s a risky signing for any GM. If his late season struggles/elbow are harbingers of something real, the contract could look like Barry Zito’s. Probably not going to happen that way, but I wouldn’t want to be the GM who went big and then had to watch.
Maybe Cueto just don’t want to play for Arizona. He might accept a similar offer from Red Sox by example.
Not that it would ever happen… but it be pretty darn hilarious for Mr. Cueto to be offered MY salary … I bet the 6yrs at 20million would look like a steal! Not complaining, good for him for cashing in… but it would just be hilarious to give a dose of reality to someone who thinks 20mil is not enough… for whatever the reason… then have to play for something along the lines of the working mans salary.
What a ridiculous thing to say. Whatever your salary is,if you were offered 80% of that salary to go somewhere else, you’d say no too. It doesn’t matter what the numbers are. If Cueto is being offered 80% of what the market will bear, then of course he’ll turn it down and of course it’s not enough. Money is relative. $120M seems like all the money in the world to you and me, but to someone who deserves $140M, $120M is inadequate and most certainly “not enough”.
Every deal that gets announced there is always one of you in the comments. Baseball articles aren’t the place.
Thing is, he’s right money is relative to what market your in. What if you got a 20% pay cut you wouldn’t feel so happy and since cueto, I don’t care if he’s worth or not worth 120/6, he’s getting a pay cut and feels like he’s not getting enough
Yeah, I just want to say a “market” isn’t exactly a “market” when someone else builds your stadiums and people are forced to pay for programing they do not want! Half of cable bills are going to sports programming and I’m pretty sure you don’t spend half your tv time watching sports! So lets cut it out with this market B.S. because if this actually resembled a “market” these players wouldn’t get anything close to what they are demanding. If they want to play fine, I just don’t think it’s fair to have me subsidize multimillionaires’ and billionaires’ salaries. And if you think I’m the only one tell that to the 9 million people who don’t have ESPN anymore.
Your worth is whatever someone is willing to pay you. As for the sports stadiums or your cable bill….no one forces you to go to the games or buy the sports package. It’s your choice. So yes…it IS the market for these players because they have unique talents we want to see. It’s the same way with the stadiums. The egos of city leaders to have their city look “big time” clouds their judgement when it comes to sports. LA has been without the NFL for two decades now and last I saw, LA doesn’t really seem to miss it. As for what YOU pay, you can always go to a minor league or high school/college game and see baseball and pay a helluva lot less. But the chances of you seeing a great player are pretty slim. But until last year, the Astros attendance was pretty poor and the reason was obvious: they had a bunch of guys who were nothing more than minor league players not many people cared about and it takes a while to rebuild interest.
Yeah, I thought the projected numbers for Cueto (around 110-130) were a bit low. I mean, prior to the trade to KC, Cueto was having his 4th consecutive season with an ERA in the 2’s. People put him in the same breath as Price and Greinke.
I think Cueto is a good bet to get 140, I wouldnt be shocked if he ends up with 150. 160 is probably pushing it. Not having the draft picked attatched to him definitely helps.
If cueto had done well with the royals , he would be looking at a david price type contract. I think 6/155 wouldnt be out of the question for him (lester deal)
Lester had a sub-3 ERA 1 time, his walk year and he got a minimum 6 years $165M and possibly $180M. He’s only 29. If people are worried about his elbow, add a Lackey option at the league minimum.
I would TRY and do something like a 7 year $170 million contract. Player gets a opt out after 4 years, but after the 5th and 6th year, its a mutual option. Seems like it would work for everyone?
Mutual Options are so rarely exercised….
I’m not sure they are really worth anything, unless it comes with a sizable buyout.
Assuming that Detroit got an injury insurance policy on Zimmermann, I cannot see how Cueto is better than him. JZ’s only negative is TJ Surgery that I can see.
The upside of both is similar, but the floor for Zimmermann is higher.
What am I missing?
Last 5 years:
Zimmerman: 66-43 3.14 ERA, 971.2 IP, 1.135 WHIP
Cueto: 64-38 2.71 ERA, 889,1 IP, 1.082 WHIP.
They’re pretty comparable but when healthy Cueto is the more dominant pitcher. Plus factor GABP vs. Nationals Park.
Well stated. Cueto is truly a 22-24 mil. a year type pitcher currently. Either a 5/120 or 6/132 type pitcher. My DBacks will need to come up a bit for this deal to be made.
A bit of cherry picking there with stats. WAR? ERA+? And Zimmermann’s 2014 was just as good as Cueto’s peak.
Cueto: 145 ERA+
Zimmerman: 123 ERA+
I disdain pitcher WAR because it relies on FIP, and certain pitchers always outperform their FIP (Cueto has every single year.) FIP is broken for some pitchers in it’s current form.
I don’t see how Zimm’s TJ surgery is a negative anymore. The last four years he’s made his 32-33 starts and has pitched an average of over 200 innings each season. I think that shows his durability and no reason to fear him any more than any other pitcher at this point and he’s logged more innings than Cueto. True, the potential for Cueto is more but with Zimm—you pretty much know what you’re gonna get. With Cueto? Who knows?
He’s nuts
It’s a negotiation. If you’re getting a new job do you ask for more than you’ll actually take? Of course you do (well if you don’t you’re throwing potential money away.)
But in the real world, if you asked for a ridiculous amount, they’d throw away your resume and call the next guy in.
Agreed, but he’s not asking for a ridiculous amount…
And there isn’t a next guy. There is 1 cueto and with Zimm signed there isn’t really a similar option left either.
MLB doesn’t work like the “real world”. That’s why these players get millions of dollars to play a game. There are few that can do it at the level they can do it at.
I liked the thought of the D-Backs going after Cueto originally, but I wouldn’t be comfortable going to 7 years or 150 million. If he can indeed get that much, good for him, but I wouldn’t be thrilled if it came from Arizona
6 years at 20 M you’re okay with but that 7th year and 1.5M more annually is a deal breaker?
Cueto is not worth Jon Lester money. Here’s why:
1. Lester’s career FIP is 3.51, which is 30 points better than Cueto at 3.82. Cueto is almost in the 4.00’s for career FIP and that’s not worth Lester money.
2. Cueto has been a career NL pitcher at best.
Cueto has outperformed his FIP for 6 years running, easily in most seasons. He’s not that lucky he’s just an odd case where that’s a poor stat to assess him with.
How do you explain that his groundball rate has decreased and his flyball rate increased each of the last 3 seasons?
Johnny cueto just want plays for money he doesn’t play cause he loves that game
Hater, You can’t even write a proper sentence. Move along now hater.
sure he does, but give this guy credit he battles out there and is an entertainer – if he passes a physical than bump up it up from 120 to 135 mill over 6 years, guessing that # has a chance at 6 yrs
I have zero knowledge of Johnny personally but this is a business and it’s Cueto’s chance now to cash in. He’d be a fool not to try to get as much as he can while he can. It may be his last chance for a big contract, too.
It seems like a six year offer with a third year opt out could persuade him. Could be wrong though. He really would stabilize that rotation. Cueto/Corbin/Ray is a pretty good core.
I’m think it be a 6 year – 144 M dollar deal with an op at the end of 4 years back l
Cueto may look back and regret he turned down the 120m for 6 years. I believe, according to the market, he is a $21m for 6 years guy, at the most. He is susceptible to arm tiredness which, in my mind, he won’t be able to pitch 6 years without an arm injury. Just my observations.
No way I give Cueto this asking price if I’m the Diamondbacks. Remember Sabathia and the Yankees?
No thanks, I’ll pass. If I’m an owner, I concentrate on secondary tier FA pitchers; or, I try to trade for a controllable young pitching. As much as I like Cueto, his asking price is way to high. I mean, the guy had elbow issues last year. I am not giving him that kind of payday for his past performance. I want ascending pitchers and not descending guys. I don’t want to pay for pitchers whose odds of staying healthy through a nine figure contract are slim.
He is not worth a 9 digit salary if you ask me. I hope the Giants don’t get him. Way to expensive for a very streaky pitcher with multiple previous elbow issues.
Cueto is not stupid. AZ is in not condition to win anytime soon he just won the world series with KC. He wants to continue to win. St. Louis. Or the cubs cubs would be perfect for Cueto. He knows the division very well so why not return to what you know best.